Boom coming: Darwin market to boom in 2025 – realestate.com.au

The property at 28 Galbraith Rd, Virginia is for sale due to the booming Darwin property market. Image: provided

---

Darwin's property market is forecast to grow rapidly next year and outpace the national real estate market, according to a new report from SQM Research.

Christopher's Housing Boom and Bust Report 2025 predicts national house prices will rise between 1 and 3 per cent next year, while Darwin house prices could rise by 8 per cent.

The report took into account a number of factors, including population growth, unemployment rates, the economy, listing numbers and vacancy rates when forecasting the performance of Australia's housing markets in 2025.

Louis Christopher, SQM Research managing director in Darwin, said things were looking good for the property market, but he warned there were downsides, such as media reports of rising crime rates.

“And I suspect that sustained heat is not for everyone,” he said.

“But overall, we are more positive for 2025 and expect home prices to increase between 5 and 8 percent on the back of declining listings and a strong uptick in employment levels.”

Louis Christopher, Managing Director of SQM Research.

---

The Boom and Bust report showed Darwin's population growth was steady, up 0.8 per cent in the 12 months to March 2024, with positive net out-migration but strong interstate flows.

“Unemployment rates in the Northern Territory have been healthy, below the national average of 3.4 per cent, and a relatively good employment growth rate of 2.7 per cent, which is generally good for the housing market,” Mr Christopher said.

“With employment increasing, SQM is forecasting fairly robust growth in wage growth through 2026, rising by around 3.5 per cent per year between 2024 and 2026.

“It should be a good fillet for the economy.”

The report, as presented by the NT Treasury, said the Territory's economic outlook was cautiously optimistic.

“Booms and busts in the Darwin housing market generally follow booms and busts in the minerals and energy sectors,” Mr Christopher said.

“Often, with the increase in global commodity prices, large companies with large budgets come to implement new projects in this area.

“Over the four years to FY28, the NT Government is forecasting Gross State Product to rise above 4.1 per cent per annum.

“One of the projects the government is hoping for is the Timor Sea Barossa gas project, which once completed (in 2025) will be a major royalty earner for the NT Government and a job winner for the city, which is already under construction. “

The property at 4 Redshank Ct, Bakewell is up for auction as the Darwin market heats up. Image: provided

---

On the housing front, the report found Darwin offered the most affordable residential property of any Australian capital, with yields of 6.25 per cent for units and 5.75 per cent for houses, while the vacancy rate was around 1 per cent.

Property listings in Darwin were down 16 per cent in 2024, which Mr Christopher said was a good sign.

“(It's) not so good for local real estate agents, but ultimately it has provided some stability to the market,” he said.

“It's also something we're seeing at the bottom of a cycle that's about to get.”

Mr Christopher said while Darwin's real estate prices would increase in 2025, prices in Melbourne, Sydney and Hobart would fall to record lows.

“Federal Treasury forecasts call for another year of population growth to almost double, plus a continued shortage of new homes, with limited expected house price declines in Sydney and Melbourne in 2024, and strong price gains in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide ” he said. he said.

“For 2025, we do not expect much change in these current trends.

“However, we now expect interest rate cuts from mid-year, which will continue the pace of price growth in Perth, Brisbane and Adelaide, and push price declines into single digits in Sydney and Melbourne.

“Our two largest capital cities, along with Canberra and Hobart, will start 2025 in the red.”