Why are the new home sales disappointed, in spite of the calculations

From : New home sales: Sales of new single-family houses in December 2024, today is a seasonally regulated annual extent of a seasonal basis for calculations issued by the US Logging Bureau and the Apartment and Urban Planning Department. This is 3.6 percent (± 19.7 percent) * is above the recycled November pace, and 674 percent (± 16.2 percent) are above December 2023.

The following graphics provide a review of the basic information lines we observe today. My initial impression is a decrease in sales, as they do in 2022, but not an important growth. We protect a constant level with the best results that appear to be 6% of mortgage rates. Under the title sales figures, there are key trends that attract attention. Also, sales in the last three months have been revised.

For sale inventory and monthly supply: The seasonal adjustable assessment of new houses for sale in late December was 494,000. This represents an existing sales rate of 8.5 months.

Monthly supply data decreased this month, but the main point is that there are 118,000 completed units sold from the builders. In addition, there are 268,000 houses currently under construction. In addition, the record of 108,000 houses in the construction of the builders is still high, and all the mortgage rates remain more than 7%.

Not surprisingly, six months have experienced the biggest monthly reduction in a while. None of this parcel is a good thing to be meaningful for housing permit.

In 2025, if you think that the construction work will be at risk, the collection and mortgage prices are still over 7%. All builders have significant benefits to purchase mortgage prices to sell their homes, so it is a careful job decision to stay careful.

Today's home sales report, when we see clarity when we will see the growth of housing permissions, was disappointed. Although the title figures defeat expectations, there was an increase in negative adjustments and inventory. In addition, the builder's confidence decreased, because the mortgage prices were over 7%.

Can things be improved? Only 6% of mortgage rates will make it easier to do in America. Prices below 6% can cause increasing housing construction and more permission. In the current environment, some will return to 7.50% and higher in places where these ratios are struggling last year. The summit for this year is 7.25%, but why some builders for this year may understand why this high rate in 2025.

So far, Federal reserve not overwhelmed. However, as shown in the table above, when residential workmen began to lose their work, the decline is usually not behind. Although the apartment permits are still low, it would not be a positive result for us, this is the current reality we face.