Mortgage rates calm before applying the possible tariff

As the housing data approached last week, as well as stability. It remained largely unchanged and there was a slight reduction in housing inventory. In addition, the waiting agreements, a modest year reduction, application information remained straight from the week to the week. At this node, important tariff plans announced by the Trump Office is important to watch something will be accepted.

10 years of income and mortgage rates

I include:

• A number for mortgage rates between 7.25% -5.75%
• A number for 10 years of product between 4.70% -3.80%

10 years of productivity closed the week at 4.54%. Despite the bigger tariffs, we had only a little soft variance on Friday due to confusion about the tariffs. 10 years of productivity increased by about 4.51% to 4.51% before falling to several main points near the day. In fact, mortgage rates have not changed much with all news headlines in the last week.

Emits a mortgage

In the last year, the real blessing in the past year is better this week than improving the mortgage and the mortgage of 2023 this week. .

If we have applied the worst levels from 2023 to today's mortgage degrees, we would see an additional 0.72% increase. This can lead to headlines asking if more than 8% of mortgage interests. Fortunately, this is not the case. In fact, when the mortgage spread is typical levels, we would see the mortgage rates from 0.81% to 0.94% to 0.94% of the current degrees. This undoubtedly brought the mortgage ratios that could last a strong recovery.

In my 2025 forecast, I predicted that the average spread between 2.27% and 0.41% in 2024, and a positive decrease in 2024%. We are on the way to achieve this target rolling range and if we can reach 0.27% – 0.41% of the spread will be useful when it falls on 10 years of improvement. It should be noted that the main thing in the memorial thing is that mortgage rates will be worse in 2024 and in 2025.

Buy application data

As we will start the year, the application of the increase in the application of high mortgages showed a mild positive trend. Here's a summary of the latest data:

• 2 Positive readings
• 1 straight reading

The weekly data was flat last week, but there was a decline in 4% during the year. Historically, when mortgage prices are high, the purchase application tends to reflect adverse trends. For example, last year's shopping application data showed 14 negative readings, 2 positive readings and 2 straight readings, when mortgage prices range from 6.75% and 7.50%.

In February, we will draw closer to the information and discuss these and other housing economic issues in our February 26 in Dallas.

Weekly waiting sales

Contract information waiting in the last week offers valuable ideas on the current trends of the housing requirement. This database has shown a noteworthy development since the summer of 2024, first of all, it was approached with a decrease in mortgage rates to buy a house for many consumers. In the same time in 2022 and 2023, the information reflects a stronger housing market in the last 12 weeks of 2024.

But I want to note that in recent weeks, we saw a negative annual increase in comparing our current figures last year. This is not a very big thing but a slight decrease. However, the mortgage rates rose from 6% to 7.25% have zap some requirements from the apartment market.

We still show a higher increase against the level of 2023. This trend provides careful monitoring in February, especially in February.

Contracts waiting a week during the past week in the past week:

• 2025: 282,172
• 2024: 287,7779
• 2023: 271,842

Weekly housing inventory data

In 2024, the best story for me was an increase in inventory as we brought to normal. This story continued in 2025, even if we saw that it was slightly reduced. It is very normal and will soon see the seasonal bottom and then traditional seasonal growth.

• Weekly inventory change (January 24-January-31): Inventory fell 636.580 for 634,979
• The same week last year (January 26 -Feb. 2): Inventory fell 503,192 for 497,347
• The bottom of the inventory was always in 2022 240,497
• Was the summit of inventory for 2024 739,434
• In some context, for active lists for the same week in 2015 936,263

New lists information

Our new list of research on Altos research reflects the houses that come from the market without immediate contract, which provides a real time view of any sales pressure in the market. We have seen the lowest level of activity in history in the past five years. This year, in May, June and July, we must contact new list data over 80,000 weeks per week. I called this last year but fell about 5,000 a week.

Note: In the apartment bubble accidents, this information line lasted between 250,000-400,000 per week. New list data for the past week last week:

• 2025: 48,886
• 2024: 44,162
• 2023: 42,843

Price incision percentage

On average, one-third of all homes is typical for reducing price reflecting the usual dynamics of the housing market. It was only a low forecast of the nominal price increase in the 2,33% nominal price, which appears to be very low last year. For 2025, I predict 1.77% this year, the negative real home indicates a year of price growth. If you are investigating the information, it shows that the percentage of prices already forms a bottom. This trend is related to the combination of higher inventory and growing interest rates.

Percentage cuts for the previous week in the last week:

• 2025: 33.09%
• 2024: 31%
• 2023: 33%

The week ahead: Tancal, this is a Tariff and Work Week!

There is a busy week ahead! First, we will learn which tariffs are in place and or not. I noted the episode on Friday, which discussed this topic on Monday.

More importantly, this is a week of work! We have four reports that end in significant jobs in the Friday report. Last week, we received information about the unemployed allegations and showed improvement.

This week may be more volatile than last week. Remember to ignore the noise until you see something in writing or economic report. We will be here every day this week to help them all mean.