Early Spring Home Sales Driving Mortgage Rates

• 4 Positive readings
• 3 negative readings
• 3 straight tracks

In total, in 2025 we saw a year of positive growth over the year with the majority of weekly data. It is not magnificent and it does not work from the lowest bar but growth is growth. Procurement applications look at about 30 to 90 days, but I would not say that the demand is strong. However, if the mortgage ratio began to start 6% and for a while, I think that everyone will increase sales, including, including 4.2 million. I will have optimism for 2025 with low mortgage rates.

Weekly waiting sales

Contract information waiting in the last week offers valuable ideas on the current trends of the housing requirement. Usually, housing requirements provide mortgage rates to get to 6% to get true growth in information lines, but we have recently seen that we have achieved anything on weekly data. If I have shortened the term, this will increase more than a year. Our weekly awaiting contracts remain a little negative, but recently improves as shown below.

Weekly awaiting contracts over the past week in the last few years:

• 2025: 346,533
• 2024: 356,618
• 2023: 327,933

10 years of income and mortgage rates

I look forward to seeing the following ranges:

• Mortgage rates will be between 5.75% and 7.25%
• 10 years of productivity will range from 3.80% and 4.70%

After a week after interesting headlines, Fed meeting and some more soft economic data, we find ourselves at a point with mortgage rates and 10 years of productivity. Last week, the 10-year productivity tested a critical level again, leaping 4.25%.

As we have discussed earlier, the level of 4.15% to 4.18% will be a strong obstacle to breaking below. We will advance forward, as labor weakness fed and the attention of the bond market, especially the more soft economic indicators related to labor data.

Emits a mortgage

If the mortgage spread began in 2024, the existing housing market would be significantly different. Typically, it spreads, 1.60% and 1.80%. If we still have a difficult mortgage, the mortgage rates since 2023, now 0.71% are high.

On the contrary, if the spreads are observed in regular times, our current mortgage rates can be reduced to about 0.79%. Imagine only – if the spread is returned to normal, we could see the mortgage rates below 6% today.

Looking at the rest of this year, I look forward to a modest decline in spreading mortgages, and from 0.27% to 0.27% in 2024 to 0.41%.

Weekly housing inventory data

Spring comes here and thus the promise of updated assets – this year's time is the time! In 2024, the most upgrade aspect of the apartment market observes the active inventory to a more balanced level. The progress we see is noteworthy if it is not yet possible for the 2019 inventory level. It was another good week for last week's inventory.

• Weekly Inventory Change (March 14 – March 21): The inventory has risen 655,626 for 668,155
• Last year the same week (March 15 March 15): Inventory rose 507,160 for 512,759
• The bottom of the inventory was always in 2022 240,497
• Was the summit of inventory for 2024 739,434
• In some context, for active lists for the same week in 2015 985,411

New lists information

Last week, the growth of new list data is brighter this year, 2023 and 2024. Last year I believed that at least 80,000 of at least 80,000 in 60,000 and I believed that we would miss this level up to 5,000. After a rocky start during the year, it is finally felt like we get closer than an inevitable 80,000 minimum.

During the new lists to give some prospects, they have flown between 250,000 and 400,000 per week for years. The growth in the new list data is only a week trying to return to normal between 80,000 and 110,000 seasonal summits.

National New List Information for last week during the previous several years:

• 2025: 69,701
• 2024: 60,328
• 2023: 49,993

Price incision percentage

In an average year, about one-third of all houses look at the reduction of prices that emphasize the natural fluctuations of the housing market. As the increase in inventory levels and the rates of mortgage rates increased compared to the periods reduced by the percentage of the percentage of houses.

For the rest of 2025, an increase of about 1.77% in home prices. This means another year of negative real home price growth. Given the existence of houses and the existence of mortgage rates, this worldview is suitable if we do not see about 6% of mortgage rates. In 2024, this landslide in the mortgage rates prevented the forecast of 2.33% last year, because it began to be very low.

The percentage of price intersors is higher than the end this year, which is a better collision with a low growth price in 2025.

Upcoming week: inflation, new home sales, waiting for home sales, fed talks and more

This week has a lot of information on the horizon, and we all know that any title can shake the markets about the war! Because we approach Trump as of April 2, expectations expect the government to do what the government's policy will do. The upcoming performances of various federal reserve presidents are preparing to shine slightly to the drama and market feelings. Also, don't forget the unemployed allegations that come out this week. We have seen a bit of an increase in unemployed allegations as the table below.

On top of that, we will have new home sales and home sales information coming to our home this week, which will be able to provide valuable concepts to the housing market with two national home prices reports. Let's see what else happens – stay up!