Melbourne house prices: Best and worst performing areas since Anthony Albanese became premier – realestate.com.au

Victorian landlords are better off in just five federal electorates than when the Albanian government took power in 2022.

This could be bad news for Labour, Greens and Teal candidates as the nation heads to the polls in 2025.

Six of the 10 areas with the best house values ​​since the last federal survey are held by Coalition politicians, according to CPA Advice analysis modeled with SuburbTrends data.

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By contrast, in the seat of Goldstein, held by Teal independent Zoe Daniel, typical rates fell by more than $330,000 — the biggest drop of any federal electorate in the state and the third-worst in the country.

The next worst performing area was Melbourne, the seat of Green Party leader Adam Bandt – down about $170,000.

CPA Advice analysis of Melbourne suburbs could be bad news for Premier Anthony Albanese when the nation goes to the polls in 2025. Photo: Steve Pohlner

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Of the 25 electorates with the worst house prices, only one was a Coalition MP: Zoe Mckenzie's seat of Higgins. However, 19 are Labor MPs.

Property Investors Council of Australia director Ben Kingsley said most people associate the federal government with the performance of the economy – and the method most property-valuing voters will use to rate their elected representatives – Victoria's broad decline in prices is “visible” at the ballot box.

“What have we seen happen with the rebirth of Trump: do people feel better or worse under the current administration?” said Mr. Kingsley.

A unit at 5 514/228 Abeckett St, Melbourne, Melbourne, sold for $325,000 in 2021 and recently for $280,000 in 2024.

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The Bentleigh at 108/15 Vickery St, Goldstein, did not appreciate in value for three years, selling for $650,000 in 2021 and again in 2024 for the same price.

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“And the wealth effect will affect that for households. If the value of the house went down, they would certainly feel worse.”

He added that the upcoming election will also test how willing people are to accept falling home values ​​as a social asset while potentially paying seven-figure interest to their banks for a 30-year loan.

“At some stage there is a tipping point as to how much they will take,” Mr Kingsley said.

“I think you'll find they won't put up with it – as long as they know it. If they're not aware this election cycle, they will be next federal election cycle.”

The data reflects broad home value trends, covering a mix of houses, townhouses and apartments, and shows that growth can vary from suburb to suburb and for specific house types within electorates.

2 Milburn Court, Endeavor Hills sold for $1.09 million in 2021 and again in 2024 for $1.28 million.

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In Victoria's best-performing electorate, Bruce – which is held by Labor MP Julian Hill and covers Melbourne's outer eastern suburbs such as Narre Warren, Doveton and Dandenong North – the typical house value of $735,000 has increased by $35,000 (5 per cent) over the past few years. years.

Area Specialist Rapid Narre Warren estate agent Khalid Arabzadeh says he regularly hears from buyers concerned about the government's lack of action on housing affordability.

“Every day we talk to half a dozen buyers who complain that the houses are unaffordable and blame the government,” said Mr. Arabzadeh.

“People want to see change, but they feel there have been promises and nothing has changed.”

Meanwhile, Buxton director Chris Hassall, in the Goldstein seat, said it was a two-tiered market in which family homes usually sold well, but landlords needed to be told prices had not changed or gone back in response to affordable housing. policies — even though most owners were ahead thanks to historic growth.

“Some of these policies are anti-growth and there is a perception that the plan is working and creating an opportunity for Australians to buy property,” Mr Hassall said.

“But unfortunately there are some affordable house price declines. And I had to advise that while the policy is to create affordable housing, the increase may not be there for a while (for some houses).”

58 McCubbin Drive, Warragul, Seat of Nicholls, sold for $630,000 in 2022 and again for $610,000 in 2024.

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The $2.45 million median home price in Black Rock's Goldstein suburb rose 8.9 percent last year, but the suburb's typical unit value of $950,000 fell 16.5 percent, PropTrack data shows.

Demographics Group co-founder Simon Kuestenmacher said the fall in Melbourne house values ​​was likely due to the city's transformation into the country's home-working capital, putting pressure on house values ​​in traditionally high-demand inner and mid-round suburbs.

Mr. Kuestenmacher said it's likely that housing affordability politicians will try to spin this as their success, but that should be viewed with skepticism.

“Melbourne is very, very different to other cities now,” he said.

Property Council of Australia Victoria chief executive Cath Evans said research commissioned by RedBridge showed 52 per cent of Victorians wanted housing affordability to be a priority for the government.

“It's clear that housing affordability will be one of the critical key ballot issues for the entire community,” Ms Evans said.

7 Eagle Ave, Cowes sold for $960,000 in 2022 and more recently for $1.2 million in 2024.

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“Whichever party delivers a clear vision and policy platform that addresses critical supply issues and provides structural solutions to the affordability crisis will be rewarded by its voters.”

Matthew Hughes, an investment adviser at CPA property group, said housing affordability would be the most important thing for voters.

However, Mr Hughes pointed out that the problem was deeply rooted in a number of issues affecting the construction industry, which meant not enough homes were being built at a time of record population growth.

VOTERS WITH BIGGEST HOME VALUE CHANGE AFTER ELECTION

Voter, Incumbent (Party): Average house price today — Change after election

Goldstein, Zoe Daniel (Independent): $1,142,500 – -29%

Melbourne, Adam Bandt (Greens) $612,500 — -27%

Flinders, Zoe McKenzie (Liberal): $850,000 — -22%

Higgins, Michelle Ananda-Rajah (Labor): $677,500 — -20%

Gellibrand, Tim Watts (Labor): $785,000 — -19%

Monash, Russell Broadbent (Independent): $595,000 — -17%

Isaacs, Mark Dreyfus (Labor): $965,000 — -17%

Ballarat, Catherine King (Labor): $520,000 — -14%

Macnamara, Josh Burns (Labor): $628,500 – -14%

McEwen, Rob Mitchell (Labor): $700,000 — -14%

*Media price reflects all of voters' homes, including houses, townhouses, units and apartments

Source: CPA Advisory analysis of SuburbTrends data

VOTERS WHO CHANGED THE SMALLEST HOME VALUE OF THE ELECTIONS

Voter, Incumbent (Party): Average house price today — Change after election

Bruce, Julian Hill (Labor): $735,000 — 5%

Mallee, Anne Webster (Nationals): $400,000 — 4%

Hawke, Sam Rae (Labor): $593,000 — 3%

Gippsland, Darren Chester (Nationals): $450,000 — 2%

Nicholls, Sam Birrell (National): $505,000 – 1%

Hotham, Clare O'Neil (Labor): $890,000 – -1%

La Trobe, Jason Wood (Liberal): $715,000 — -1%

Wannon, Dan Tehan (Liberal): $450,000 — -3%

Casey, Aaron Violi (Liberal): $830,000 — -3%

Lalor, Joanne Ryan (Labor): $626,500 — -3%

*Average price reflects all homes in the electorate, including houses, townhouses, subdivisions and apartments

Source: CPA Advisory analysis of SuburbTrends data

– Additional reporting by Sarah Petty

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