The biggest mortgage rate stories of 2024
2024 has been a disappointing year for those anticipating the Fed's rate-cutting cycle and what it might do about it. A strong economy (and a) forced interest rates down until September – and then mortgage rates went up!
But the bond market took the lead Federal Reserve and before the first cut, mortgage rates were already down almost two percentage points from their October 2023 highs. Mortgage rates hovered near the magical 6% level at various points this fall, spurring demand and giving the industry a much-needed but short-lived boost.
Unfortunately, the election brought a whole new set of variables affecting mortgage rates, and we now end the year with mortgage rates around 7%. Terrible? No. ok? Also no.
“I understand the frustration with mortgage rates in 2024,” said lead analyst Logan Mohtashami. “Many people believed that a sub-6% mortgage market was coming, but the bond market held firm at a fundamental level like holding the door. As a result, another year passed without mortgage interest rates falling below 6%.
The HousingWire newsroom writes several times a week about mortgage rates (you can find all of these stories here), and we publish Mohtashami's 10-year income/mortgage rate forecast every Saturday with weekly updates on housing inventory, sales, new listings, pending contracts. and more.
“Mortgage rates have stayed in the range I expected this year,” Mohtashami said. “When economic and labor data weakened, bond yields and mortgage rates fell. Conversely, when economic and labor data improved, rates rose again. What we saw in 2024 was similar to 2023: when economic data weakens, mortgage rates decline. For these rates to remain low for long, the economy would have to continue to perform poorly or mortgage spreads would have to return to normal.
Below are some of our top mortgage interest stories from September, showing what housing professionals are experiencing this year:
Where will mortgage rates go in 2025? Check out HousingWire and register for February 26th when top housing economists break it all down.
